Tuesday, October 25, 2016

The future

I just got back from speaking at a conference in Palm Springs.  On the plane ride, I read the most excellent book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner.  Great book if you're doing risk analysis or threat analysis work.

One thing that really got under my skin was a reprint of a letter from Donald Rumsfeld to the President - "Thoughts for the 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review".  It's a PDF download, so here is the heart of the letter:

If you had been a security policy-maker in the world’s greatest power in 1900, you would have been a Brit, looking warily at your age-old enemy, France.

By 1910, you would be allied with France and your enemy would be Germany.

By 1920, World War I would have been fought and won, and you’d be engaged in a naval arms race with your erstwhile allies, the U.S. and Japan.

By 1930, naval arms limitation treaties were in effect, the Great Depression was underway, and the defense planning standard said “no war for ten years.”

Nine years later World War II had begun.

By 1950, Britain no longer was the worlds greatest power, the Atomic Age had dawned, and a “police action” was underway in Korea.

Ten years later the political focus was on the “missile gap,” the strategic paradigm was shifting from massive retaliation to flexible response, and few people had heard of Vietnam.

By 1970, the peak of our involvement in Vietnam had come and gone, we were beginning détente with the Soviets, and we were anointing the Shah as our protégé in the Gulf region.

By 1980, the Soviets were in Afghanistan, Iran was in the throes of revolution, there was talk of our “hollow forces” and a “window of vulnerability,” and the U.S. was the greatest creditor nation the world had ever seen.

By 1990, the Soviet Union was within a year of dissolution, American forces in the Desert were on the verge of showing they were anything but hollow, the U.S. had become the greatest debtor nation the world had ever known, and almost no one had heard of the internet.

Ten years later, Warsaw was the capital of a NATO nation, asymmetric threats transcended geography, and the parallel revolutions of information, biotechnology, robotics, nanotechnology, and high density energy sources foreshadowed changes almost beyond forecasting.

All of which is to say that I’m not sure what 2010 will look like, but I’m sure that it will be very little like we expect, so we should plan accordingly.

This really got me thinking about the where we will be in warfare, especially considering the recent DNS DDOS attacks and a possible cyber cold-war.  Really makes you think.

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