By this I mean, I mean phishing, spearing, fake security alerts, social engineering malware. It will quickly reach the point where it will overwhelm not only our defenses but the even the context we use to describe it. There are so many attack surfaces and so little useful defenses in the hands of the average user, we’re in for a rough ride. Why will this get more prevalent? Well, because of...
Military wonks have been warning us about this for decades. Now we're going to see it go farther into the mainstream, especially with all the info stored in Facebook, LinkedIn, Flickr, blogs, and Twitter streams. Some of the worst stuff is being generated by our friends and family without our consent. Just ask Sir John Sawers. This will lead to...
There's dozens of these kinds of undocumented and unexpected linkages between our organizational security systems and the consumer-grade applications we all swim on a daily basis. Password resets that bounce out via email to our iPhone or Gmail accounts. Twitter links with embedded passwords that happen to match our main password. Web mail sites can be used to spread custom malware internally. They're considered low value and therefore have weak security accordingly. And what about those consumer grade systems? Well, expect...Prediction Four - Larger attacks against "soft" targets because of items 1,2,3
Why hack Twitter, Facebook, Gmail, etc? Because that's where the money is, duh. Most of these services were designed to protect low-value assets and casual attackers. But that value is out of proportion because of the aforementioned dependencies, the value of this secondary data in escalating attacks, and the scam-value of the friend-trust relationships embedded in these systems. Which all leads to...
Most of the standard threat models say the normal user is somewhat trustworthy. Many say otherwise that's a bad idea. As items 1-4 become widespread, the popularly accepted models will need to evolve to simply not trusting the average user or customer in the slightest bit. For many high-risk applications, like web-banking or large e-commerce sites, we're pretty much there. Now everything will move to this level, even the common low-value / low-hanging fruit applications and services. Those of us folks who already live in that mindset, we'll be helping the rest of the world deal with the new paradigm. The standard of reasonable care will change to this new baseline and more resources will need to be expended. When will it reach that point? Probably soon. So what can we do about it?